A number of people, including me, have wondered how robust the traffic modelling for the East Reading 'MRT' (Mass Rapid Transit / bus lane by the Thames) can be, as it fails to include 'induced demand'. That is, if the MRT is built, and the London Road really was a bit freer in the peak times - wouldn't it just fill up again as people who previously weren't driving think they might now, as it's easier with less congestion?
This is what the Council's own business case says on 'Car Reduction Implications':
5.3.1 ...the reduction in car trips on the network would not be so large as to release substantial road capacity in the corridor.
5.3.3 ...the scale of car trip reductions on the network are quite small.
and
5.3.4 ...the scale of car trip reduction is unlikely to result in trip inducement in the corridor.
In plain English - any shift in usage from car to bus will be so small as to not be a factor in inducing increased demand. The shift, according to the Council, is so small, that the effect on 'driver delay' is classed as negligible - and 'negligible' is helpfully defined as 'average vehicle delay changes are less than 20 seconds as a result of the proposed development during the peak hour periods.'
Your Council will be millions of pounds poorer, your riverside will have been ruined, but the journey into Reading will be (less than) 20 seconds faster in the mornings…
PS: The 'business case' is here: http://www.reading.gov.uk/media/7933/East-Reading-MRT---Demand-Modelling-Report/pdf/East_Reading_MRT_-_Demand_Modelling_Report.pdf
No comments:
Post a Comment